Adaptive behaviors and vaccination on curbing COVID-19 transmission: Modeling simulations in eight countries.

Current persistent outbreak of COVID-19 is triggering a series of collective responses to avoid infection. To further clarify the impact mechanism of adaptive protection behavior and vaccination, we developed a new transmission model via a delay differential system, which parameterized the roles of adaptive behaviors and vaccination, and allowed to simulate the dynamic infection process among people. By validating the model with surveillance data during March 2020 and October 2021 in America, India, South Africa, Philippines, Brazil, UK, Spain and Germany, we quantified the protection effect of adaptive behaviors by different forms of activity function. The modeling results indicated that (1) the adaptive activity function can be used as a good indicator for fitting the intervention outcome, which exhibited short-term awareness in these countries, and it could reduce the total human infections by 3.68, 26.16, 15.23, 4.23, 7.26, 1.65, 5.51 and 7.07 times, compared with the reporting; (2) for complete prevention, the average proportions of people with immunity should be larger than 90%, 92%, 86%, 71%, 92%, 84%, 82% and 76% with adaptive protection behaviors, or 91%, 97%, 94%, 77%, 92%, 88%, 85% and 90% without protection behaviors; and (3) the required proportion of humans being vaccinated is a sub-linear decreasing function of vaccine efficiency, with small heterogeneity in different countries. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Spatial-temporal clustering of an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Guangzhou, China in 2021.

Background: In May 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant led to the first local outbreak in China in Guangzhou City. We explored the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of this outbreak. Methods: Based on the 153 cases in the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak, the Knox test was used to analyze the spatial-temporal clustering of the outbreak. We further explored the spatial-temporal clustering by gender and age groups, as well as compared the changes of clustering strength (S) value between the two outbreaks in Guangzhou. Results: The result of the Knox analysis showed that the areas at short distances and brief periods presented a relatively high risk. The strength of clustering of male-male pairs was higher. Age groups showed that clustering was concentrated in cases aged ≤ 18 years matched to 18-59 years and cases aged 60+ years. The strength of clustering of the outbreak declined after the implementation of public health measures. The change of strength of clustering at time intervals of 1-5 days decreased greater in 2021 (S = 129.19, change rate 38.87%) than that in 2020 (S = 83.81, change rate 30.02%). Conclusions: The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Guangzhou has obvious spatial-temporal clustering. The timely intervention measures are essential role to contain this outbreak of high transmission.

Association Between COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage and Case Fatality Ratio: a Comparative Study - Hong Kong SAR, China and Singapore, December 2021-March 2022.

What is already known about this topic?: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), China and Singapore are both facing considerable Omicron variant epidemic. However, the overwhelmed medical system and high case fatality ratio (CFR) just occurred in Hong Kong SAR, China but not in Singapore. What is added by this report?: The low vaccination coverage in Hong Kong SAR, China, especially among the older adults, is shown to be a primary reason of its recent high CFR. What are the implications for public health practice?: Facing the potential epidemic risk, non-vaccinated, non-fully-vaccinated, and non-booster-vaccinated people in China, especially the elderly, should get any type of accessible vaccine, which could save lives when the infection unfortunately befalls.

When and How to Adjust Non-Pharmacological Interventions Concurrent with Booster Vaccinations Against COVID-19 - Guangdong, China, 2022.

Introduction: With the large-scale roll-out of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination effort (a vaccine dose given 6 months after completing primary vaccination) in China, we explore when and how China could lift non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in 2022. Methods: Using a modified susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) mathematical model, we projected the COVID-19 epidemic situation and required medical resources in Guangdong Province, China. Results: If the number of people entering from overseas recovers to 20% of the number in 2019, the epidemic in 2022 could be controlled at a low level by a containment (215 local cases) or suppression strategy (1,397 local cases). A mitigation strategy would lead to 21,722 local cases. A coexistence strategy would lead to a large epidemic with 6,850,083 local cases that would overwhelm Guangdong's medical system. With 50% or 100% recovery of the 2019 level of travelers from overseas, the epidemic could also be controlled with containment or suppression, but enormous resources, including more hotel rooms for border quarantine, will be required. However, coexistence would lead to an uncontrollable epidemic with 12,922,032 local cases. Discussion: With booster vaccinations, the number of travelers from overseas could increase slightly in 2022, but a suppression strategy would need to be maintained to ensure a controllable epidemic.

Enhanced protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 elicited by a VSV vector expressing a chimeric spike protein.

SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV are genetically related coronavirus and share the same cellular receptor ACE2. By replacing the VSV glycoprotein with the spikes (S) of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, we generated two replication-competent recombinant viruses, rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 and rVSV-SARS-CoV. Using wild-type and human ACE2 (hACE2) knock-in mouse models, we found a single dose of rVSV-SARS-CoV could elicit strong humoral immune response via both intranasal (i.n.) and intramuscular (i.m.) routes. Despite the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, no obvious cross-neutralizing activity was observed in the immunized mice sera. In macaques, neutralizing antibody (NAb) titers induced by one i.n. dose of rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 were eight-fold higher than those by a single i.m. dose. Thus, our data indicates that rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 might be suitable for i.n. administration instead of the traditional i.m. immunization in human. Because rVSV-SARS-CoV elicited significantly stronger NAb responses than rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 in a route-independent manner, we generated a chimeric antigen by replacing the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV S with that from the SARS-CoV-2. rVSV expressing the chimera (rVSV-SARS-CoV/2-RBD) induced significantly increased NAbs against SARS-CoV-2 in mice and macaques than rVSV-SARS-CoV-2, with a safe Th1-biased response. Serum immunized with rVSV-SARS-CoV/2-RBD showed no cross-reactivity with SARS-CoV. hACE2 mice receiving a single i.m. dose of either rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 or rVSV-SARS-CoV/2-RBD were fully protected against SARS-CoV-2 challenge without obvious lesions in the lungs. Our results suggest that transplantation of SARS-CoV-2 RBD into the S protein of SARS-CoV might be a promising antigen design for COVID-19 vaccines.